Los Angeles & South Bay July 2019 Housing Market Update – Median Prices Falling!

Los Angeles & South Bay July 2019 Housing Market Update  - Median Prices Falling!



hey how's it going everybody I hope you all had an awesome 4th of July celebration and weekend a little slow on getting this video out this month but the good news is is that there's definitely some interesting stuff to take a look at in the local housing market here in the Los Angeles County and South Bay beach cities areas for the beginning of july 2019 first wanted to just take a quick second and thank all of the new subscribers to the channel as well as anybody who reached out to me directly or left comments on YouTube etc so thank you very much to all of you who did that so let's go ahead and jump in I wanted to first start off by just taking a quick look at interest rates which essentially are pretty stable they haven't really changed much since the last video we're down here at about 3.75 percent currently and really these rates are extremely low and although there was an initial boost that we saw in the housing market as a result of these low rates now we're seeing continued weakness and in fact as you're going to see as we move forward the first year-over-year price declines that are significant in both of the areas that I'm covering Los Angeles County and South Bay beach cities so let's actually jump in we'll take a look at the data we'll start off here and look at what's happening in Los Angeles County as a whole and we'll look at median prices which are actually down a half a percent year-over-year I believe the last video they were down 0.1% or something like that but now they're down about a half a percent so not super significant but certainly not going up from a year-over-year standpoint any longer and certainly not beating the rate of inflation which means if you own a property at least considering from where prices were a year ago you would have essentially lost a couple percent in value as a result of inflation and the slight modest price drop that you're seeing here now if we take a look at what's happening with inventory again we're seeing kind of the same trend surprisingly it really hasn't broken out past kind of this peak of last year 2018 but that being said the overall inventory level throughout all of 2019 has been significantly higher as an average than everything that we experienced in 2018 and in fact it is up 20% year-over-year so not super crazy but definitely three point six months it's starting to grow in a market where typically low inventory is the norm now if we take a look at closed sales in the County of Los Angeles we see kind of a similar trend as we've been seeing we're down ten point three percent year-over-year which isn't terrible but definitely not good either as you look back here you see other years that kind of had higher peaks around this time of year and we're certainly not getting up anywhere that high so far this year and I don't believe we're going to see a jump in close sales for the rest of the year which means our kind of trend or our average close sales are still going to be significantly lower than last year or the previous year probably the other previous years before that as well now let's take a look at what's happening in the South Bay out of our Board of Realtors and here's where this things definitely get a bit more interesting our year-over-year currently we're down 4.9 percent in median prices I think for the South Bay this is the first year that we're down year-over-year and definitely the first time that we're down by this significant of an amount year-over-year now if we switch to a bar chart here and just say look at the last three years this really kind of paints a clearer picture of what's happening back in 2017 we had a median home price at 660 then we went up to 789 in 2018 and now a year later we're down four point nine percent to 750,000 so with interest rates being extremely low the introduction of all kinds of programs to help buyers buy with little or no money down we're still seeing prices start to taper off and come down to some extent depending on where you're talking about we're still seeing more inventory set on the market and we're still seeing the number of sales falling across the board so certainly not a strong real-estate market as we saw for many years and definitely a substantial slowdown overall the market is still moving people are still buying homes are still selling but it's not the feverish pace that we were used to for such a long time with so much competition depending of course on where you're buying or where you're looking to sell your home etc now if we look at what's happening with the supply of inventory in the South Bay here's where definitely we're seeing kind of a huge increase we still are right where we were all the way back in 2014 and we haven't broken past that which is kind of interesting to me because I thought we would but again just like Los Angeles and in this case much more so were far above where we were most of these previous years and definitely vastly above anything that we saw all of last year so if you're a buyer out there you're selling your home it's gonna feel like there's a lot more homes in the market for a buyer it's gonna be much easier to find a home and get an offer accepted but for a seller there's going to be a lot more competition so the condition of your home the pricing that you use all of these things are gonna be much much more important than they would have been a year ago or two years ago and so on now if we take a look at the close sales a similar thing that we're seeing here probably much more pronounced in Los Angeles County as a whole we're down twelve point six percent year-over-year 2018 as you can see here was fairly soft compared to the couple years preceding that it doesn't look like we're gonna have any peak months where we have you know a big jump in sales or anything like that throughout the rest of 2019 in fact we might already be over the hill for peak selling season and we could just trend downwards from here as you see kind of July maybe August is kind of where we generally tend to peak in previous years here it was June and so here we are we've already past June and now we're in July so to be interesting to see what happens but definitely more week signs coming out of the Los Angeles housing market over so if I can help you with anything real estate-related here in the Los Angeles County area definitely reach out to me give me a call and yeah I appreciate you watching the video and I'll look forward to seeing you next month thanks so much you

3 Comments

  • chino1127 says:

    Very interesting. In my local market, basically SFR homes in the Westside, it seems inventory is low, closed sales are going up and for the first time in 6 months were seeing price increases. I see that you can screen by SFR and even bedrooms – I wonder if the MLS data agrees with my observations? Thank you again for another wonderful report!

  • D L says:

    Another awesome update Mike. Thanks!

  • j K says:

    Thank you for the update Sir. Waiting for these small multifamily properties in the Los Angeles area to come down to reasonable levels. The numbers still do not make sense to buy as an investment; Also curious to know how much of an impact AB 1482 rent control bill will have on rental housing values if it is passed by the California Senate.

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